Alpha-Driven Portfolio

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Everyone Is Watching BTC, But the Real Action Is Elsewhere

Everyone Is Watching BTC, But the Real Action Is Elsewhere

Flashy charts, breathless tweets, another "pumping" frenzy

Michael Serven's avatar
Michael Serven
Jan 30, 2025
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Alpha-Driven Portfolio
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Everyone Is Watching BTC, But the Real Action Is Elsewhere
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Bitcoin’s back in the headlines—flashy charts, breathless tweets, another "pumping" frenzy. But while everyone’s staring at their screens waiting for crypto to moon, some of the smartest investors are quietly cashing in on something far less sexy: real-world stuff.

Think power grids, car batteries, and even… silver spoons.

With BTC probably having topped for the next 2 or so weeks (thanks, new moon!)

Let’s break down the 5 hidden plays Wall Street’s whispering about—no jargon, just plain talk.

BTC Reality Check

While Bitcoin dominates headlines at $105,000, structural risks and cyclical patterns suggest caution for 2025 allocations:

1. Post-Halving Fatigue vs. Historical Patterns

  • 2025’s halving cycle shows weakening momentum: Despite a strong bullish case for $130K–$150K in Q1, Bitcoin’s 2025 rally lacks the 300%+ post-halving surges seen in 2016/2020 cycles. Miner capitulation signals intensify, with 63% revenue drops forcing equipment shutdowns.

  • ETF flows turn fickle: January’s $503M single-day outflow signals profit-taking by institutions, contrasting with 2024’s relentless inflows.

2. Macroeconomic Headwinds

  • Dollar strength bites: BTC’s -0.41 correlation to DXY becomes a liability as Fed policy tightens financial conditions despite rate cuts.

  • Growth repricing risks: Bitwise warns of S&P 500 downside spilling into crypto, with global liquidity declining.

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    While I am looking for a Q1 top for BTC in the $130k - $150k region, the risk:reward profile is now unfavourable. Simply put, below $100k BTC can be a good buy. Below $90k BTC is a good buy for a +50% upside. Above $100k - it’s better you look at something else.

3. Regulatory Double-Edged Sword

  • While Trump’s pro-crypto policies may ease banking integration, they also invite speculative excess reminiscent of 2021’s meme-stock mania.

  • SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s replacement risks overcorrection, potentially greenlighting risky leverage products.

4. Technical Warning Signs

  • Hash rate collapse: 7.7% post-halving drop mirrors 2022’s bear market lows, suggesting miner liquidations could pressure prices.

    Parabolic exhaustion: We are now definitely closer to the top than we are to the bottom. The parabolic bullish trend is now slowing down. After a Q1 top, we’re probably gonna see weaker Q2-Q3 for a projected comeback in Q4.

Key Takeaway: Bitcoin remains a macro bet, but 2025’s asymmetric risk profile favors real-world assets with clearer catalysts (utilities, commodities) over purely speculative crypto plays.

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II. The Boring (But Brilliant) Stuff

1. Power Companies: AI’s Secret Sugar Daddy

Why it matters:
AI chatbots like ChatGPT guzzle power like a pickup truck guzzles gas.

Every data center needs massive electricity—and utilities like Entergy (ETR) or DUK are cashing in.

Why ETR?

  • Their stock chart’s been quietly rising (up 7.5% this year) while others flatline.

  • Pays a 3% dividend—like getting paid to wait.

  • They’re building nuclear plants (the "always on" energy source AI needs).

Simple play: Think of utilities as toll roads. Every AI query = a tiny tax for ETR.


This section is available exclusively for my paid subscribers.

If you want to know:

  • What the current macro is telling us

  • What are my picks for overlooked assets that can provide high-conviction, high-reward plays.

  • When to sell & how to maximize profits

  • Actionable strategies for multiple scenarios

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